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Commentary by Jackson Zeng, COO Caleb & Brown

Bitcoin: USD $3,801 (28 Feb 2019 2:30pm)

This week the price of Bitcoin pushed further up to $4200 before a sizeable correction back to the 50 day exponential moving average (EMA) at $3700.

There are two main outcomes we’re looking out for in the next few weeks.

  1. The first is the possibility of a long-term trend reversal, identifying $3200 as the bottom. In order for this to happen, we would need to see a significant increase in volume. In addition to this, we would also need repeated break outs and a few greater short term highs.

If the 50 day EMA, which previously acted as resistance, turns into a support for a sustained period of time, it may confirm this outcome.

 

  1. The other possibility is a short term moving average breakout before continuing down the bear trend. At this stage, I would not be confident in predicting a definitive bottom, as it is still too early to call.

The quick retracement when we broke into an overbought RSI and average volume hints at the latter holding true.

 

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