Litecoin Price: $129.79 (14 June 2019 1:33 PM AEST)
The Price of Litecoin has been steadily climbing in anticipation of the block reward halving projected for August 8th.
Block halvings are one of the most important fundamental indicators in Bitcoin and Litecoin, which also make them incredibly vital in pushing an agenda in the media.
- We’re seeing a significant growth in media pushing the “price growth from block reward halving” agenda, and while it’s fundamentally correct, we believe the growth has already happened and it’s far too late to get into that now.
- Strong Correlation emerging between the events in the last halving and today.
LTC/USD Key Levels
In typical “buy the rumour sell the news” fashion, the price of Litecoin in 2015 surged 550% from the low of $1.22 to $7.93. Due to the lack of liquidity 4 years ago, we’re omitting the candle wicks for a more realistic representation of price movement. But 42 days before the halving, the price plummets 60% back down to $2.99 as the large LTC holders use the narrative and increased volume to exit their positions.The resulting price growth from the low of 2015 to halving date was +145%, ($1.22 to $2.99) a far more grounded result.
Comparative Assessment In 2015
- Bubble Phase: +550% ($1.22 to $7.93)
- Crash: -60% (42 days before halving)
- Year low to “halving date” growth: 145%
- Bubble phase: +400% ($29 to $144 so far)
- Potential Corrections:
- -20% Corrections: ~$115
- -37% Corrections: ~$90
- -60% Corrections: ~$60 (Unlikely, the market is more resilient now than 2015)
- Year low to “halving date” growth outcomes:
- +100%: ~$60 (Unlikely, the market is more resilient now than 2015)
- +200%: ~$90
- +300%: ~$115
LTC/USD Key Levels
Potential Trading Strategies
Selling LTC into USD:
- Remember that we are in the beginning of a crypto bull market, so plan your re-entry to avoid missing the market growth, with staggered re-entries at $115, $100, $90.
Selling LTC into BTC:
- This action has a greater risk-to-return ratio than selling into USD, as the pre-halving dump risk on LTC is mitigated while at the same time, value can be captured if we continue the crypto bull run.
- Those who want LTC in their long term portfolios can re-enter post-halving, support levels on LTCBTC: 0.013 and 0.011.
(These comments are general in nature and should not be construed as advice. This information is provided to you for educational purposes only)
LTC / USD Short Term Analysis
Key Observations for Short Term Traders
- Pattern: Each short term rise (2 weeks) is followed by a correction below the previous short term high (Warning: Patterns do not always repeat).
- Overbought on LTCUSD RSI.
- Overbought on LTCBTC.
- LTC tends to retrace closer to 50 EMA.
I hope that this analysis provides you with a greater understanding of the current market conditions and the events which happened last halving. Whilst we cannot predict the market, we hope that you have better information around the key levels were seeing to make better informed decisions.
Jackson has over five years experience in Cryptocurrency Trading and founded one of the first managed Cryptocurrency Investment Trusts in Australia, Bit By Bit Capital. Jackson currently acts as COO for Caleb and Brown, CIO for Bit By Bit Capital and has featured frequently on Sky News, The Herald Sun, The Australian and other major News outlets as a leading expert on cryptocurrency analysis.
Whether you are new to the market, or a seasoned trader, Caleb & Brown can help to realise your goals. Call us on +61 1800 849 149 or Contact Us to discuss further.